Comments on: A Totally Gay Math Problem

By: The Cali Garmo

The Cali Garmo — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:36:03 +0000

This concept is actually fairly easily seen in California too! Luckily we have had 2 votes on marriage equality and so it’s much simpler to make a (VERY) vague description of when marriage equality will come to the state.

Considering that in 2000 Prop 22 banning same-sex marriage passed with 61.4%
And considering that in 2008 Prop 8 banning same-sex marriage passed with 52.5%

It seems that in 8 years there was a 9% drop in hatred toward same-sex marriage. This roughly translates to that in 2010 CA will have close to a dead split with the opposers slightly ahead and in 2012 having the opposers be in the minority for the first time.

My number 3 years seems fairly close to @Adam ’s 3-5 years for Maine where maine is currently at 53% which suggests taking a little longer than CA.

But again, these are EXTREMELY rough estimates and don’t actually signify any trend. After all, if you give me any 2 points I can create you any line you so desire hitting any points you wish.

By: W.W.WTF – 11/06 « Skeptigay

W.W.WTF – 11/06 « Skeptigay — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:39:42 +0000

[...] – 11/06 By skeptigay http://www.distracto.net/2009/11/a-totally-gay-math-problem/ - Gay AND Math, together-like some kind of blastphemous marriage. Gotta love [...]

By: --bill

--bill — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:48:44 +0000

You leave out immigration, both into and out of the state. From 1990-2000, the percent of Maine's population aged 0-34 dropped by 8 percent; the percentage aged 34-85+ increased by 10 percent. See ElderWeb . People retire to Maine, while young people move out.

By: Greg

Greg — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:35:43 +0000

You have to figure the older people are FAR more likely to turn out and vote than the younger segment. You also have to fine tune the population distribution to account for the fact that the baby boomers are a significant bulge of population (age 45 to 65 I believe). And, in California, babyboomers were less than 50% likely to support gay marriage.

By: The Equation That Will Determine When Enough Old Mainers Will Die to OK Marriage / Queerty

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:35:29 +0000

[...] software engineer and blogger Frank Pape breaks down all the necessary information to compute the question, which hinges on old people being more conservative, and young people being [...]

By: Eric

Eric — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:14:57 +0000

Sadly, I don’t know statistics. I think it would be a more compelling picture if turnout ratio was factored in there, too, though.

By: Adam

Adam — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:10:50 +0000

Well, if we use the current population estimate as a starting point. (1,316,456 Wikipedia)

Lets assume:
.0116 – .0093 = 0.01067
Year 0 is 2008.

y-hat = 1316456 + .01067x
y-hat ~ 14047 new people per year.

Births: 15270.9
Deaths: 12200.0
Total: 3070 New Births.

Of those deaths we can assume that these are the percent that die.

18-29: 244
30-44: 488
45-64: 2318
65+: 8906

Only 731,591 of the population are voters (2008 election, Wikipedia).

If the vote is split 53% to 47% then these are the amounts.

Against: 387743
For: 343848

Of which:
Against:
45-64: (53%) or 205504
65+: (70%) or 271420

Remember that we lose [2318, 8906] ever year, so. If we sum the votes against against the amount that have died.

Year
1 – 11224/387743 or 2.895%
2 – 22448/387743 or 5.789%
3 – 44896/387743 or 11.578%
4 – 89792/387743 or 23.156%

Against: 297953/754039 = 39.51%
For: 433638/754039 = 57.51%

Does that really show that after two years they will lose 5.7% || 11% of the vote? No, but it can hint that by the next election Maine should have enough to at least tie.

This also assumes that every new voter will vote for same-sex marriage. You also assume that the older folk “drop like flies” (Note, I didn’t factor in the amount of 18-45 lost, it’s fairly low.).

This is only an assumption, but I would expect that in 3-5 years the vote could come back and have a very good chance at allowing same-sex marriage.

By: Hey

Hey — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:52:15 +0000

You forgot to show the current proportional split of the current population by age.

By: Rachel Titley

Rachel Titley — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:29:47 +0000

I will not attempt maths at half 1 in the morning, I will not…
Don’t ask me how I worked it out, and it’s only an approximate, but I got 8 years.
Like I said, half 1 in the morning.